Global Intelligence Decline: How Demographic Shifts May Reshape Innovation by 2100

The Alarming Convergence of Declining Fertility and Intelligence

A comprehensive analysis published by Uncorrelated in March 2025 reveals concerning projections about global intelligence trends and their potential impact on human innovation. The research integrates data on fertility patterns, IQ distribution, and demographic shifts to forecast significant changes in worldwide intellectual capacity through the end of the century.

Declining TFR. Source: Uncorrelated

Key Findings Of Global Intelligence Decline

According to the analysis, global IQ is declining at a rate of approximately 1.1 points per decade, with over a third (35.5%) of this decline attributable to dysgenics—the negative selection of traits associated with intelligence and education. The remaining decline stems from demographic shifts, as populations with lower average IQ tend to have higher fertility rates.

The research identifies several alarming trends:

• The high-IQ working age population (IQ ≥ 131) is projected to decrease by 73.4% by 2100 compared to 2025 levels

• Nearly 40% of the world's working-age population will have an IQ below 70 by the century's end

• The threshold for what constitutes the top 2.3% of intelligence will drop from an IQ of 128 to 116

• Global innovation capacity may halve by 2100, resulting in approximately 18 years of lost innovation potential

NIQ and Innovation Index. Source: Uncorrelated

The Science Behind the Decline

The analysis draws on multiple genomic studies from both the United States and the United Kingdom showing that genetic variants associated with education and cognitive ability are being selected against across generations. Research reveals a striking negative correlation between traits that enhance educational achievement and reproductive success.

This pattern extends globally, with stronger negative selection observed in less developed countries. The study notes that within countries, lower socioeconomic status predicts both higher fertility and stronger dysgenic effects.

Implications for Innovation

The relationship between national IQ and innovation appears exponential rather than linear, with high-IQ nations producing disproportionately greater scientific output. This relationship suggests that even modest declines in the high-intelligence population could significantly impact global innovation capacity.

By examining metrics including scientific publication counts, patent applications, and contributions to prestigious journals, the research estimates that humanity may lose approximately 18 years of innovation potential this century, though still retaining about 57 years of 2023-equivalent innovative capacity.

Potential Mitigating Factors

Despite these concerning projections, several factors could offset the anticipated decline:

1. Technological acceleration: The rapid pace of advancement in AI and genetics could compensate for human capital losses

2. Development effects: China's emergence as a scientific powerhouse demonstrates how economic development can unlock innovation potential in previously underperforming populations

3. Migration patterns: When talented individuals from lower-resource environments move to contexts with better infrastructure, they may realize more of their innovative potential

Cautious Optimism

While the projected trends warrant serious attention, the study's author maintains cautious optimism. The remaining 57 years of 2023-equivalent innovation represent substantial creative capacity, equivalent to all progress since 1968.

This timeline suggests humanity still has a significant window of opportunity to develop technological solutions that could break the feedback loop between declining fertility, dysgenics, and reduced innovation—whether through advanced artificial intelligence, genetic technologies, or social innovations that reverse current demographic trends.

As with previous predictions of resource constraints or environmental challenges, human ingenuity may yet find pathways through these demographic headwinds, potentially transforming our understanding of human potential in ways we cannot currently imagine.